Project

Understanding dairy value chains in low- and middle-income contexts

PhD project by Zebrhe Teklay. Smallholder farmers and traders predominate in dairy markets in most low and middle income countries, operating under a high level of uncertainty. Chain actors focus on cash-based short-term profits instead of fostering long-term relationships and innovations. This research aims to generate insights and policy-relevant evidence on designing inclusive, safe, and demand-driven dairy value chains in Ethiopia.

This PhD proposal investigates how dairy value chains in low- and middle-income countries can be made more responsive to heterogeneous consumer demand while balancing food safety, affordability, and inclusiveness among chain actors. Informal chains in many low- and middle-income countries typically prioritize short-term cash gains over long-term relationships, and offer lower consumer prices and better payment for producers, but often compromise on food safety and quality. In contrast, formal chains cater to high-income consumers with relatively safer, processed products but exclude low-income consumers and do not sufficiently incentivize producers.

Overall, the research aims to generate insights and policy-relevant evidence on designing inclusive, safe, and demand-driven dairy value chains in Ethiopia, addressing the trade-offs outlined above. Therefore, this PhD research is proposed to:

  1. describe and map the Ethiopian dairy value chains, ranging from formal to informal;
  2. explain consumer preferences for various product attributes and sales conditions under different consumer segments; and
  3. design and implement specific interventions that increase/improve the responsiveness of dairy chains to the heterogeneous demand.

Based on purposive selection of three potential regions, the study will adopt a multi-method approach. In the first study, we will employ qualitative methods—key informant interviews, in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, and field observations. Data will be analyzed using thematic/content analysis and social network mapping. The second study will employ a mixed-methods approach, combining an adaptive choice-based conjoint household survey and qualitative multivariate techniques to assess consumer preference and willingness to pay, using latent class, conditional, and/or mixed logit models. The third study will adopt a quasi-experimental design to test and evaluate the impact of interventions linking informal traders to formal chains. By randomly assigning traders in selected milksheds into treatment and control groups and using a matched difference-in-difference method, the study will estimate causal effects on key outcomes before and after interventions.