Sustainable future of the dairy sector in Ethiopia

Dairy production in Ethiopia faces several systemic barriers that hinder its sustainable growth, including production system-specific constraints, religious fasting periods, climate change, household income, and market and consumer preference dynamics. As a result, the sector experiences volatility in milk prices and demand, seasonality in milk production and marketing, hygiene issues, and a consumer preference for raw milk. These factors contribute to fluctuating profit and loss for dairy value chain actors, while greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions remain high. The sustainable growth of the Ethiopian dairy sector requires improving milk yield while reducing environmental impact.

To show a sustainable future for the dairy sector, it is necessary to assess current production and distribution systems, both on its potential to grow and its ability to reduce environmental impact. Therefore, this study will develop scenarios for a sustainable future dairy sector, paying attention to both environmental footprint and food and nutrition security.

The study will pursue the following objectives:

1. To map the organizational diversity in dairy value chains across different agro-ecological milk sheds;
2. To evaluate the economic and environmental impacts of milk production and distribution activities of various organizational models along the value chain;
3. To assess the role of different value chain organizational models in stabilizing milk production and marketing during fasting-induced market demand shocks;
4. To design future scenarios for the dairy sector aimed at enhancing the sustainability of diverse milk production and distribution systems

The scenarios include sustainability assessment of farmers, dairy cooperatives, and other businesses at distinct stages of the value chain and different geographical scales. The scenarios will allow (cooperative) value chains to achieve higher levels of social, economic, and environmental sustainability performance.