Project

Integrated Modelling for Resilient Food and Water Systems under Climate Change

Increasing crop yield to meet future food demand while simultaneously avoiding the negative environmental impacts of crop production is a crucial challenge in many regions of the world. This research aims to systematically assess how agricultural practices influence crop yields, irrigation demands, and nutrient losses under climate and socio-economic changes worldwide. I will explore the co-benefits and trade-offs of agricultural practices in selected hotspot regions. A conceptual framework will be developed to showcase how model outputs can be transformed into actionable knowledge to support sustainable crop, water and nutrient management.

Introduction

Increasing crop yields while preventing excessive irrigation and nutrient losses is a challenge for intensified agriculture. Water and nutrients limit crop yields in many regions of the world, while excessive fertilization and irrigation withdrawals threaten environmental sustainability in other places. Climate and socio-economic changes further alter water and nutrient demands and availability. However, the holistic impacts of agriculture practices on crop-water-nutrient interlinks under different conditions remain poorly quantified. This research aims to address those quantitative interactions.

Objective

The main objective of this project is to improve the understanding of interactions between crop yields, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) losses, and irrigation demands affected by agricultural practices under climate and socio-economic changes. The project will also explore sustainable agricultural practices that balance the requirements for increasing crop yields and minimizing environmental impacts.

Method

The methods to be used will be a combination of model integration, hotspot identification, scenario analysis, and stakeholder engagement to answer the following research questions:

  • RQ1: How did the global hotspots of major yield gaps, nutrient losses, and irrigation overuse change in the past decades?
  • RQ2: How will climate and socio-economic changes influence crop yields, irrigation demands, and nutrient losses?
  • RQ3: What are the trade-offs and co-benefits of agricultural practices on increasing crop yields while mitigating nutrient losses and unsustainable irrigation?
  • RQ4: How can water-climate information service (WCIS) support decision-making to increase crop yields while mitigating nutrient losses and unsustainable irrigation?
Research_Framework Yixuan.jpg

(Expected) results

The following results are expected from the project:

  • Global patterns of yield gaps, excessive nutrient losses, and irrigation with current fertilization and irrigation practices.
  • Impacts of climate and socio-economic changes on global crop yields, irrigation demands, and nutrient losses.
  • Trade-offs and co-benefits of agricultural practices for increasing crop yields while minimizing excessive irrigation water use and nutrient losses in hotspot regions.
  • Conceptual framework about how water-climate information service supports decision-making to increase crop yields while mitigating nutrient losses and unsustainable irrigation.