Conflict or cooperation? Micro-level dynamics of climate and livelihood shocks in Senegal

Samenvatting (Engelstalig)

This thesis explores how climate change, livelihood shocks, and community relationships interact, focusing on farmer-herder dynamics in Senegal. Using surveys, interviews, focus groups, experiments, and econometric analysis, it shows that climate change affects daily life but is not a direct cause of conflict. Instead, geographical and seasonal patterns, natural resource management, and local governance play bigger roles in social relations.
The research finds that collective shocks (like extreme weather) reduce cooperation, while individual shocks can increase it. Pastoralists tend to cooperate more than farmers, but tensions rise when stereotypes and rivalries—especially involving mobile herders—come into play. Climate shocks strengthen in-group loyalty and out-group hostility, making conflict more likely.
Data analysis also reveals that both conflict and cooperation rise under unusual climate conditions, suggesting they often co-exist rather than oppose each other. The study highlights the importance of addressing stereotypes, monitoring local dynamics, and focusing on cooperation as part of climate adaptation.