Trade-offs and synergies in food system transition: case of the Ethiopian dairy sector

The research emphasizes the importance of involving stakeholders to understand the trade-offs and synergies in transforming the food system.

The transition pathway approach

To analyse and better understand food system transition, the transition pathway approach – a framework to explore and map out possible routes (or ‘pathways’) for transforming a complex system – is commonly used to engage stakeholders in looking for a solution to major structural food system issues. Inherent in these food system transition pathways are trade-offs and synergies within or between different dimensions of sustainability (social, environmental, economic); between different temporal and spatial scales; and between different types of actors (farmers, consumers, policy makers, etc.). The study focuses on two main pathways to increase dairy consumption:

Peri-Urban Pathway: This approach aims to provide safe and affordable pasteurized milk to low-income consumers in peri-urban areas by 2037.

Rural Pathway: This strategy focuses on ensuring that rural pregnant and lactating women, as well as children under seven, have access to pasteurized milk within the same timeframe.

Researchers collaborated with stakeholders to identify 15 trade-offs associated with these pathways. These trade-offs were evaluated on a scale from 1 (low importance) to 4 (very high importance), with average scores of 2.47 for the peri-urban pathway and 2.6 for the rural pathway.

Collaboration is key and context matters

The study highlights that involving stakeholders is essential in assessing the trade-offs and synergies in food system transitions. “Generally, analysis of trade-offs and synergies tends to be quantitative using such methods as optimization, simulation, econometrics,” says Augustine Abioye Ayantunde, first author of the study and senior researcher at ABG. “However, the weakness of these quantitative methods is the omission of stakeholder involvement at the onset of the trade-offs and synergies assessment, which could potentially limit the practical application of the results. Hence, we included the stakeholders in the process.”

Another important take-home message from the study is that the effectiveness and implications of each pathway vary depending on the specific context and the stakeholders involved. This emphasizes the need for tailored approaches when implementing food systems transformations.

Implications for Ethiopia

Ethiopia's food systems are characterized by primary agricultural production, seasonal variations, and diets largely consisting of locally produced foods, especially in rural areas. The diets are often rich in carbohydrates but lack sufficient proteins, fats, and vitamins. Rapid population growth, urbanization, and climate change are placing additional pressures on the country's food production systems and natural resources.

Transforming the dairy sector could play a significant role in addressing these challenges by improving nutrition and food security. However, it's essential to carefully consider the trade-offs involved to ensure that the strategies are sustainable and equitable. By identifying and assessing the trade-offs associated with different pathways, policymakers and stakeholders can make informed decisions that balance progress with sustainability.